Knight-Swift Transp.: TL Rate Upcycle on Track: 2Q Beat + 3Q Upside Guide

Research evidence excerpt

Knight-Swift Transp.: TL Rate Upcycle on Track: 2Q Beat + 3Q Upside Guide

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

Knight-Swift Transp. Equities

United StatesTL Rate Upcycle on Track: 2Q Beat + 3Q Upside

Guide Trucking

12-month rating Buy *

12m price target US$94.00Truckload margin drives upside 2Q of $0.63 vs Cons. of $0.51

KNX reported upside 2Q EPS of $0.63/share vs Consensus of $0.51 and our estimate of

$0.52/sh. Relative to our estimates, Truckload operating income was $18 mm higher Price (22 Jul 2026) US$76.04

and Logistics (brokerage) in-line with our model. KNX also provided a frame for 3Q of RIC: KNX.N BBG: KNX US

$0.71 to $0.77/share vs Consensus of $0.71 and our estimate of $0.69/sh. Commentary

was incrementally positive on TL balance but mixed on LTL improvement in demand, Trading data and key metrics

with KNX essentially indicated it is too early to see the impact of volume improvement in 52-wk range US$82.45-38.94

TL and LTL. Market cap. US$12.3b

Shares o/s 162m (ORD)

Supply constraints point to potentially longer duration up cycle in TL pricing Free float 75%

KNX continues to believe regulatory pressures on truckload industry supply are the Avg. daily volume ('000) 909

primary driver in the rapid tightening that is taking place in the truckload market with Avg. daily value (m) US$65.8

only a modest lift from improving demand. Considering this backdrop and the further Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$7.34b

pressure still expected on truckload capacity, we believe there is potential for the current P/BV (12/26E) 1.7x

upcycle to have a longer duration (our base case assumes spot rates peak in 2Q27). We Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.4x

expect pricing gains to build through 2027 with a larger step up in contract rates in rates

in 2027. EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

12/26E