European Leisure and Travel: Leisure and Travel weekly. Key investor questions and newsflow

Research evidence excerpt

European Leisure and Travel: Leisure and Travel weekly. Key investor questions and newsflow

Flutter (Buy) For Q2 (5 Aug), at the group level, we forecast -2% revenue decline to

$4,120m (-3% vs. VA consensus) and EBITDA of $442m (-10% vs. cons). Our

conservatism versus consensus is driven largely by the US, where we are below on

revenues, reflecting what we believe to be unfavourable sports outcomes rather than

underlying performance. Stepping back, we expect Flutter to reiterate underlying FY

guidance, with any revisions likely to be mechanical in nature and related to sports

results. Indeed, we expect Q2 underlying US revenues to be in line with, or potentially

ahead of, guidance, offering some support for the view that the guided top line

inflection remains on track. As such, while we expect a supportive Q2 update, we

continue to believe Flutter remains a largely 'show me' story, with meaningful validation

of both EBITDA delivery and deleveraging unlikely until later in the year. (link)

Scandic (Buy) We remain positive following a challenging quarter (link). Management

expects stable occupancy levels for the Group, improved pricing conditions and flat YoY

financial performance in Finland in 2H26. More broadly, Nordic RevPAR growth

continues to outpace Europe, while Pandox – with meaningful exposure to the Nordics,

UK and Ireland – recently highlighted only limited impact from the Middle East conflict.

In addition, continued growth in airline capacity across the Nordics points to resilient

travel demand, in our view. FX impact has also turned supportive on a YoY basis amid

NOK appreciation. Finally, lower-than-expected lease liabilities reduce our net debt

estimates, resulting in a slightly higher PT despite lower EBITDA forecasts. We reiterate