First Read Stora Enso: 2Q26 EBIT miss + 3Q cost headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Stora Enso: 2Q26 EBIT miss + 3Q cost headwinds

Cons.

Packaging EBIT was €6m higher than expected (albeit €6m below cons) on higher open 12/26E 0.57 0.55

market containerboard sales (capturing higher pricing without the lag that comes from 12/27E 0.75 0.74

box sales). Integrated Packaging beat UBS/cons by ~50% of €21m on better pricing. 12/28E 0.80 0.81

Pulp was broadly in line with our forecast (and volumes positively surprised), but 8%

below cons EBIT. The guide for a similar EBIT loss at Oulu in 3Q (maintenance impacted) Andrew Jones

Analyst

and a €40-50m maintenance headwind q/q is also negative in our view.

andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 6545

Q: Has the company’s outlook/guidance changed?

Zenande Meyiwa

A: Stora expects market conditions to remain uncertain, with geopolitical tensions/

trade-related volatility potentially affecting customer demand, supply chains & costs. zenande.meyiwa@ubs.com

Stora continues to focus on actions within its control while proactively adapting to +44-20-7567 5474

market developments. The Oulu ramp-up continues, but a longer annual shutdown is

planned in Q3 to install efficiency improvement equipment; the negative impact on adj.

EBIT is expected to remain at a similar level to Q2. Maintenance for Q3 is expected at

€110-120m, ~€40-50m higher than Q2 (€71m in Q2) due to shutdowns in all segments.

For 2026, as stated previously, owing to changes in EU ETS rules, income from the sale of

emission rights is projected to decrease to €10-20m (vs. €72m in 2025). The 2026 capex

guidance is unchanged at <€550m and remains €200m below 2025 (UBSe €540m,

cons. €548m).

Neutral, PT €11.4/share (based on DCF valuation and peer group multiples)

We expect the miss plus 3Q headwinds to result in a negative share price reaction.