Ipsos SA Stronger 2Q growth offsets narrower FY outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Ipsos SA Stronger 2Q growth offsets narrower FY outlook

om To % ch Cons.

to our estimates. FY26 organic growth is broadly unchanged at 1.9%, reflecting 12/26E 5.61 5.66 1 5.49

management's updated guidance of around 2%, but we increase FY27-28 organic 12/27E 5.78 5.85 1 5.78

growth assumptions by 25bps to 2.7% as we gain confidence in the medium-term 12/28E 5.98 6.06 1 6.14

benefits from GMS rollout, Ipsos.Digital expansion and AI-enabled solutions. We also

raise Adj. EBITA margin estimates by 10bps in FY26e base, reflecting continued cost Hai Huynh, CFA

discipline, fading BVA dilution and improving operating leverage as growth recovers. Analyst

hai.huynh@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 7051

Conference call tone more constructive on H2 despite macro caution

Louise Wiseur, CFAManagement reiterated confidence that organic growth can remain around the 2Q26

Analyst

level through H2, supported by an improved order book, accelerating pharmaceutical louise.wiseur@ubs.com

demand, resilient Public Affairs activity and continued strength in China. For the first +33-14-888 3051

time, management disclosed that GMS now represents several hundred million euros of

Natasha Brilliant

revenue, while Ipsos.Digital is approaching €200m and continues to grow at a double-

digit rate. Management also reiterated that the 70bps decline in H1 gross margin was natasha.brilliant@ubs.com

driven by 30bps of BVA dilution and 40bps of Public Affairs mix effects, while cost +44-20-7567 0645

control remained solid with headcount down c1% YTD and overheads lower YoY. BVA

dilution is expected to be largely absorbed by year-end.

Valuation: PT €39 (from €36.7), Neutral

We raise our PT to €39 (from €36.7) reflecting modest estimate upgrades and improved

confidence in medium-term organic growth prospects.