First Read Centrica: Our thoughts from the call

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Centrica: Our thoughts from the call

the 12/27E 16.30 14.80

year. The company indicated that there is more that OFGEM could do (the debt relief 12/28E 16.08 16.21

scheme which should clear £1bn debt is still not working). Centrica's relative

Mark Freshney

performance has weakened, with its share of industry bad debts rising from 23% to

Analyst

34% (versus c24% market share), and forced installations of prepayment meters are mark.freshney@ubs.com

being used by competitors. Longer-term, a social tariff with much lower prices for +44-20-7568 3989

vulnerable customers could be helpful. Measures to help use DWP/HMRC (UK Govt)

Anna Webb

data to ascertain who cannot pay from who will not pay might also be helpful. That said,

the GB domestic supply business has installed the ENSEK ignition CRM system and we anna.webb@ubs.com

think the margins are robust because of this. +44-20-7568 8293

Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona

Messaging on Rough storage facility Analyst

On the call, Centrica indicated it is extracting and selling the cushion gas in Rough gas gonzalo.sanchez-bordona@ubs.com

storage. By the coming winter, all cushion gas will be exhausted and the field will be idle. +34-91-745 4147

There is a risk that many of the skilled staff would leave and it would be difficult to re-

start. The CEO had discussions with the previous UK Prime Minister on a CfD-type

instrument for Centrica to fill the asset using working capital from Centrica. But this has

not so far been taken up. We note the shape of seasonal spreads means there is no

commercial signal to fill the asset, as there was in H2 2022, for instance.

Earnings target and guidance

Highlights (£m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 33,374 24,636 22,365 25,335 26,474 26,541 27,108 27,811