Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 145

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 145

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 145

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Tankers attacked in the Red Sea Analyst

Brent is back above $100/bbl for the first time since last May as disruption to flows via henri.patricot@ubs.com

the Bab el Mandeb Strait become more tangible following Houthi attacks on two Saudi +33-14-888 3033

tankers (link). Saudi exports via the Bab el Mandeb have averaged ~3.5Mb/d over the Nayoung Kim

past few weeks. Unlike for Hormuz, there is an alternative route to the north, via the Analyst

Suez canal or Sumed pipeline, but this still creates logistical issues given vessel size nayoung.kim@ubs.com

constraints and much greater distances to Asia. Some crude tankers were reported +44-20-7568 4010

crossing today (link). Joshua Stone

Analyst

Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb crossings even lower joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

Flows via Hormuz are still falling. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset)

show no oil & gas crossing yesterday (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulfOil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). The July average is down to 7.5, from the Josh Silverstein

mid-to-high teens recorded in late June and early July, and well below the c.50 level seen Analyst

in February. Volumes through the Strait are down to 4.3Mboe/d average in July, josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

compared with 3.7Mboe/d in June and 1.3Mboe/d in May (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/dEstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/dmatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d).