First Read UniCredit 2Q26 - 2% net profit beat, impacted by trading losses; FY26E/28E/30E guidance raised

Research evidence excerpt

First Read UniCredit 2Q26 - 2% net profit beat, impacted by trading losses; FY26E/28E/30E guidance raised

y expansion, with the solid

12/26E * *

performance mainly driven by investment and insurance results (respectively up 17% 12/27E * *

and 16% YoY, thanks to supportive equity markets and investment product sale

volumes). Within ancillary revenue, trading in the quarter was negatively impacted by Ignacio Cerezo

the €245m one-off from CBK's stake hedging and Russia's balance sheet compression, Analyst

while dividends/associates more than doubled YoY (and up 74% QoQ) thanks to the ignacio.cerezo@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4409

contribution of the strategic portfolio. Costs declined c1% yoy to €2.3bn (flat QoQ

despite seasonality), within FY guidance with FTE down 3.7% YoY (and 1% QoQ). Adele Palama

Analyst

Stable asset quality, small overlay use, capital up 7bp qoq adele.palama@ubs.com

+34-91-436 9023

NPEs up 1% QoQ (and 3% YoY) though gross NPE ratio overall improved to 2.48% (vs

2.64% in 2Q25) thanks to the strong acceleration of the performing loan book. Default

rate remains below 1% (0.8% vs 0.7% in 1Q, 1.2% in 2Q25). Blended stage 3 coverage

stood to 45.9% (vs 45.4% in 2Q25) while stock of overlays is equal to €1.6bn, down

€100m QoQ. CET1 ratio was up 7bps QoQ to 14.26% though including temporary

19bps RWA headwind related to strategic portfolio and expected to be reversed.

Proforma for the Danish compromise on the insurance business (52bps) the FL CET1

ratio would be at 15%. UCG expects CET1 ratio landing at c13% proforma of a c200bps

capital impact from CBK acquisition (net of the cancellation of €4.75bn FY25 SBB).

Valuation: in line with sector's c10x PE27E average on consensus estimates

Highlights (€m) 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E