First Read Jupiter Fund Management PLC H1 2026 - 11% operating profit beat, driven largely by performance fees

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Jupiter Fund Management PLC H1 2026 - 11% operating profit beat, driven largely by performance fees

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 7.1%

Forecast dividend yield 3.6%

Forecast stock return 10.7%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return 1.5%

Company Description

Jupiter is a UK-based fund manager that offers investment management services to retail and

institutional clients, with most of its retail clients (c85% of AUMs) investing through

intermediated platforms. The company sources c70% of AUMs from UK-based clients with

another c20% from continental Europe.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value JUP using a discounted cash flow model.

There are a number of risks facing JUP. Jupiter faces performance risk, which describes the

ability of JUP to beat their fund performance benchmarks. In a scenario where JUP is unable

to beat its fund performance benchmarks, the firm may lose client flows. Investors, tend to

base their asset management allocation decisions on the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year track

records of the funds so a weakening performance record will have a negative impact on client

flow market share and ultimately, JUP's bottom-line. Like the other asset managers, Jupiter

also faces key-person risk that, we argue, is higher at Jupiter than peers (as evidenced by the

outflows after Mr. Darwall announced he was leaving the firm in 2019). JUP also faces

reputational risks. If there is any negative impact to the reputation of an asset manager, it will

likely have a negative impact on the asset manager's ability to attract client funds. This would

in turn negatively impact an asset manager's bottom-line. Like the other asset managers, JUP

faces conduct risk. Any malfeasance on the part of an asset manager would likely be