T-Mobile US (TMUS.O): Updating our TMUS Model for 2Q26 Results

Research evidence excerpt

T-Mobile US (TMUS.O): Updating our TMUS Model for 2Q26 Results

Action |

24 Jul 2026 02:40:16 ET │ 20 pages

T-Mobile US (TMUS.O)

Updating our TMUS Model for 2Q26 Results

CITI'S TAKE

We are updating our outlook following fine 2Q26 results and a modest

increase to FCF guidance. We have shifted some revenue and EBITDA from

3Q into 4Q per the latest guidance, as TMUS expects some churn friction Neutral

related to the rate plan modernization efforts, while we also believe the Price (23 Jul 26 16:00) US$170.42

other Telcos are performing better in the market with refreshed rate plans

Target price US$225.00and converged promotions. We still see T-Mobile as a net share taker of

postpaid accounts and service revenues, while pursuing ongoing efficiency Expected share price return 32.0%

initiatives to improve margins. Similar to its Telco and Cable competitors, Expected dividend yield 2.6%

uncertainty on longer-term industry structure may remain an overhang and

Expected total return 34.7%restrain valuation multiples given the possibility for Satellite LEO

Constellation to directly enter the mobile market. We remain Neutral-rated Market Cap US$182,805M

and could revisit our stance on improved organic growth prospects and/or a

more attractive valuation.

By the Numbers — We are making small revisions to our FY26 estimates following Price Performance

the quarter and management’s updated outlook. Overall, we believe TMUS is on (RIC: TMUS.O, BB: TMUS US)

track to achieve its FY26 guidance. We shared additional takeaways in our note,

Takeaways from T-Mobile Earnings and Callback. We update our valuation to

migrate to 2027 metrics as well as update our DCF to incorporate the extension in

operating forecasts now through 2035.