Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

Pole Position Equities

Europe including UKUBS European & US Autos Daily

Automobiles

Patrick Hummel, CFA

Stellantis: Positive read-across from GM comments Analyst

GM’s industry-related comments in the Q2 deck and earnings call have a moderately patrick.hummel@ubs.com

positive read-across for Stellantis: (1) Lower commodity headwinds than initially feared +41-44-239 52 54

in H2, (2) stronger pricing environment & healthy inventory levels ahead of arrival of David Lesne

next-gen full-size trucks in Q4, (3) initial management view that 2027 earnings will be Analyst

higher than the raised 2026 base (however, partially company-specific on next-gen david.lesne@ubs.com

trucks, lower EV losses and growing digital service revenues). +33-14-888 3034

Joseph Spak, CFA

Our view: Analyst

While STLA is in a totally different position in the US with high dealer inventory joseph.spak@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3089

(especially for trucks), a solid industry environment in terms of pricing and healthy stock

levels of competitors could help Stellantis to push MY26 trucks in the coming months via Juan Perez-Carrascosa

moderately higher incentives. While this may still result in lower H2 margins in NA vs. Analyst

Q2, fears of a 'deja-vu' situation like 2024 with massive production cuts and a big juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.com

+34-91-436 9025

negative swing in working capital could prove to be overly negative. For Q2, STLA

disclosed 440k NA shipments (UBSe: 400k) pointing to a likely Q2 beat in AOI; we now Paul Gong

think buy-side expectations have risen to ~3% AOI margin on group level as well as for Analyst

NA region, including a positive FCF close to €1bn. Before the shipment release, we had paul.gong@ubs.com

+852-2971 7868