European Insurance News & Views: June UK CPI: Motor pricing increase accelerates

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance News & Views: June UK CPI: Motor pricing increase accelerates

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

European Insurance News & Views Equities

Europe including UKJune UK CPI: Motor pricing increase accelerates

Financial

Qian Lu

Headline: June UK CPI: Motor pricing increase accelerates Analyst

qian-za.lu@ubs.com

June UK CPI data was released this morning (see here). We provide key data points for +44-20-7567 4657

UK P&C insurers below. Will Hardcastle, CFA

Analyst

will.hardcastle@ubs.com

UBS Summary:

+44-20-7567 9763

Nasib Ahmed, FIA

UK Motor: According to CPI data, UK Motor pricing was up +6.3% YoY in June vs Analyst

+5.7% YoY in May, ahead of claims inflation trend which is running at mid-single digits. nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

We note that, on an MoM basis, Motor pricing was up +1.9% in June, showing an +44-20-7568 8231

acceleration from +0.8% in May, taking the YTD rate change to +3.7%, which is in

Chloe Ryan

excess of the claims cost trend, suggesting margin expansion on a written basis, YTD. Associate Analyst

We see these data points as supportive to our view that UK Motor Insurance pricing chloe.ryan@ubs.com

should at least cover inflationary trends in 2H26. Aviva said at the 1Q26 results that the +44-20-7567 3505

UK Motor market was hardening, with its pricing up 3ppts over Q1 vs market +1ppt.

Sampo (not covered, owns Hastings) management is seeing emerging signs of price

stabilisation and a modest uptick in pricing towards the end of the Q1; it is pricing in

inflationary pressure gradually. Admiral stated it has increased pricing by a couple of

ppts YTD when it reported its FY results, while the market was flattish, and we believe

other players likely need to follow suit given low industry profitability (see our Admiral

upgrade note here).