ASML: Feedback from CFO Roadshow

Research evidence excerpt

ASML: Feedback from CFO Roadshow

by its 12/27E 58.41 50.95

systems. In our view, this could support a more favourable pricing trajectory beyond the 12/28E 77.46 66.80

throughput-related improvements already embedded in expectations, creating potential

Francois-Xavier Bouvigniesupside to 2027–28 estimates across both EUV and immersion tools. We note that

Analyst

TSMC's recent comments on equipment cost inflation provide additional support for this francois.bouvignies@ubs.com

thesis. As a sensitivity, we estimate that every 5% change in EUV ASPs would drive +44-20-7568 7105

approximately 3–5% upside/downside to group EPS. Importantly, we see the risk

Nicolas Gaudoisskewed to the upside, as consensus does not appear to assume meaningful pricing

increases beyond throughput-driven gains. nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

+65-6495 5148

3) High NA on track for 2028-2029

Harry Blaiklock, CFA

ASML continues to see strong engagement from both logic and memory customers on Analyst

High-NA EUV. While Intel is expected to be the first customer to deploy the technology in harry.blaiklock@ubs.com

high-volume manufacturing , management remains confident that broader industry +44-20-7568 5385

adoption will follow, including leading memory players. As a result, ASML continues to

see a pathway to more meaningful High-NA shipment volumes in 2028-29, supporting

lithography intensity in our view.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 27,559 28,263 32,667 44,039 58,560 72,409 70,248 75,300

EBIT (UBS) 9,082 9,063 11,342 18,170 26,275 34,467 33,572 36,795

Net earnings (UBS) 7,681 7,395 9,426 15,170 22,172 29,053 28,301 31,008

EPS (UBS, diluted) (€) 19.49 18.79 24.24 39.51 58.41 77.46 76.54 85.15

DPS (net) (€) 6.10 6.40 7.50 9.85 9.30 14.16 14.16 16.84