EasyJet (EZJ.): New EasyJet Numbers, and What Pricing Trends Mean for Ryanair

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EasyJet (EZJ.): New EasyJet Numbers, and What Pricing Trends Mean for Ryanair

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23 Jul 2026 09:58:47 ET │ 15 pages

EasyJet (EZJ.L)

New EasyJet Numbers, and What Pricing Trends Mean for Ryanair

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral / High Risk We cut estimates on weaker unit revenue and higher fuel, with FY26 PBT

now at £99m (0.9% margin) vs £160m prior (1.5% margin). We reduce Price (22 Jul 26 16:30) £5.85

FY27/28/29 by -23%/-8%/-2% with higher fuel partly offset by unit Target price £7.15

revenue. Despite recently improved bookings and an Easter timing drag on Expected share price return 22.2%

the June quarter, unit revenue growth in 4Q26/Sep Q (Citi: -4%) is not Expected dividend yield 1.2%

currently on track to be better than 3Q26/June Q (Citi: -3%). We discuss Expected total return 23.4%

the relevance of this for Ryanair below, given concerns today that it

Market Cap £4,434M increases the risk of -MSD% fare declines for it. For easyJet, while our

US$5,931M estimates are lower, shares continue to be driven by the company's

potential takeover, and the probability of completion. PT remains at 715p,

and we stay Neutral/High Risk on the shares.

Conor DwyerAC

Sequentially softer unit revenue growth through summer at easyJet, and what +44-20-7986-2824

this means for Ryanair — The fact that easyJet unit revenue growth looks set to be conor.dwyer@citi.com

similar or worse in the September quarter versus the June quarter—despite an

Easter drag on June Q and an apparent improvement in trends in recent weeks—is a

concern for some investors in relation to Ryanair. On this, there is a worry that

it opens the door for fares to stay at -MSD% for peak summer, as indicated by the

CEO on the 1Q27 results call but downplayed by many in the market (including us).