Anomalies and Rapid Unscheduled Disassemblies

Research evidence excerpt

Anomalies and Rapid Unscheduled Disassemblies

IdeaMlanding streak), the other caught fire after touchdown. In both cases the

payloads reached orbit fine; only reusability was affected.

• SpaceX has shown rapid iteration and learning from each event, with engine

reliability, propellant management, and reentry/landing stresses as recurring

challenges.

Crewed missions (100% success rate)

• SpaceX has flown 20 crewed missions carrying 78 crew members from 20

countries.

• These are all orbital crewed flights on Falcon 9/Crew Dragon. No crewed

Starship missions have flown yet (though plans exist for future ones).

Excluding SpaceX’s Falcon launches, the rest of the launch industry attempted

285 orbital launches in 2024 and 2025, recording 15 outright failures and 2

partial failures. Against that benchmark, Falcon 9’s >99% operational full-mission

success rate ranks among the industry’s best, despite an initial recovery-

development campaign in which only 6 of the 16 initial controlled-descent test

flights achieved both a soft landing and booster recovery. Space is hard for

everyone: anomalies, delays and losses of critical hardware are an unfortunate

reality of the industry. Repeated failures can erode investor conviction and may

require repeated successes to restore. What has historically set SpaceX apart is

its willingness to test aggressively, fail and learn quickly, and eventually turn

repeated setbacks into reliable operational capability.

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Exhibit 2: Starship Flight Test History

Booster Controlled ship

Starship Starship Stage Ship ascent Booster catch / Payload

Date controlled reentry /

Flight generation separation completed recovery deployment