India Healthcare: Choppy waters ahead for Indian Generics? We See More Noise in Tariff Plans Than Long-Term Damage!

Research evidence excerpt

India Healthcare: Choppy waters ahead for Indian Generics? We See More Noise in Tariff Plans Than Long-Term Damage!

22 July 2026

India Healthcare

India Healthcare: Choppy waters ahead for Indian Generics? We

See More Noise in Tariff Plans Than Long-Term Damage!

Nandan Kulkarni On 21st July, President Trump announced on social media handle X that from August 2028,

+91 22 6842 1436 Generic drugs landing in USA will face 100% tariff and this will be revised upwards to

nandan.kulkarni@bernsteinsg.com 200% from 2029. First, we believe the tariff announcement largely political. With

broader trade negotiations stalled, Indian generics appear to be a convenient pressure

Shirsh Sawarna

+91 226 842 1492 point in a wider negotiating chessboard rather than a conventional executive action.

shirsh.sawarna@bernsteinsg.com Notably, we have seen similar tariff proposals in the past—particularly in the U.S.-China

trade dispute—ultimately delayed, diluted, or partially exempted once the implications for

U.S. companies and consumers became clearer. We therefore view this less as a lasting

policy shift and more as a negotiating lever.

Second, Roughly 70–80% of generic drug applications today are ordinary solid oral tablets

and capsules, and moving their manufacturing from an India site to a US site is a well-

trodden, rules-based exercise, not a scientific gamble. For immediate-release tablets,

the company mainly needs comparison-of-dissolution testing, a few trial batches, and

stability data — so we estimate a site transfer cost about 1-1.5 Million dollars and can be

done in under a year. For extended-release tablets, the same move needs a fresh human

bioequivalence study, three stability batches, and full sign-off before selling — pushing