Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS): 2Q26: Small EBITDA Beat, Guidance Points to Consensus Upgrades and Confidence in Pricing

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS): 2Q26: Small EBITDA Beat, Guidance Points to Consensus Upgrades and Confidence in Pricing

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22 Jul 2026 02:22:17 ET │ 13 pages

Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS)

2Q26: Small EBITDA Beat, Guidance Points to Consensus Upgrades and

Confidence in Pricing

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 02-SEP-26

Overall, a solid quarter, coatings volumes recovered, pricing absorbing raw

Price (21 Jul 26 16:30) €57.16 material inflation, and 3Q guidance is ahead of consensus. It reinforces

Target price €61.00 our positive view on self-help, pricing execution and Axalta value creation.

Group EBITDA of €398m was 1% ahead of consensus, with sales also Expected share price return 6.7%

ahead and volumes better, offset by weaker FCF. Coatings was the key Expected dividend yield 22.7%

positive, including Refinish returning to growth: volumes +2%, organic Expected total return 29.5%

sales +2% and EBITDA 4% above consensus; Deco margins improved to Market Cap €9,777M

18.3%, less than we hoped, as volumes of -4% softened, mainly Western US$11,145M

Europe DIY and China. Free cash flow was also soft, coming in below

consensus as working capital and restructuring payouts weighed on

conversion. FY26 EBITDA guidance remains ≥€1.47bn, and the 3Q guide is

c€390m, both of which are 4% ahead of consensus. We expect shares up Ranulf Orr, CFAAC

on L-MSD on the Coatings improvement, pricing confidence and +44-20-7986-3922

expectations of consensus moving up. ranulf.orr@citi.com

Sebastian Satz, CFA

M&A / Portfolio Update — Merger execution is now the main strategic update: the +44-203-569-3662

F-4 is effective, proxy filed and the Akzo EGM is scheduled for 5 August, with closing sebastian.satz@citi.com

still expected late 2026 to early 2027. Management reiterated $600m cost