2Q26 Results – Strong EBITDA Beat, Solid Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results – Strong EBITDA Beat, Solid Outlook

UpdateMforecasts for Q3 and Q4 in Europe from 2/4% to 1/3%, while in the US Q4 has been

updated to 6% from 4%, with Q3 unchanged at 4%.

Energy: Into Q3, the company continues to see a weak hydrological balance in

Southern Norway vs historical levels, but expects the loss from price area

differences to improve QoQ. Starting with the NOK 0.5bn Q2 baseline, we see scope

for modest downside to ours and consensus estimates at NOK 0.65-0.75bn.

Qatalum: Qatalum continued to operate at ~60% of capacity due to the Middle

East situation. Hydro’s 50% share of Qatalum adjusted EBITDA declined to NOK

316mn in Q2, while adjusted net income fell to NOK 50mn. The marketing and

offtake agreement was terminated during Q2, and Hydro is discussing future

marketing arrangements with its partner. We assume only a limited Q3 recovery in

our base case, with improved operating rates and shipment normalisation

representing upside.

Slovalco: Hydro plans to restart 75kt of Slovalco’s 175kt capacity during H2 2026,

subject to final EU approval of the revised indirect-carbon-cost compensation

scheme. Given the ramp-up timetable, we expect only a limited Q3 earnings

contribution, with a more meaningful benefit from Q4 and into 2027.

2Q26 EBITDA beat: Adjusted EBITDA of NOK 8.9bn was 9% above company-

compiled consensus of NOK 8.22bn. The beat was not broad-based across all

divisions: Bauxite & Alumina was significantly above consensus (higher sales

volumes, lower raw material costs), Aluminium Metal was 11% above (higher

realised prices, lower costs), and Extrusions was 9% above (stronger recycling

margins). This was partly offset by Metal Markets (negative commercial results) and