Previewing Subsidized Crude Pipe Reaction Season; Downgrade GEI to Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Previewing Subsidized Crude Pipe Reaction Season; Downgrade GEI to Hold

Canada | Midstream EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Previewing Subsidized Crude Pipe Reaction

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETSeason; Downgrade GEI to Hold

ENB CN HOLD C$79.00

A broad theme across 2Q calls should be mgmt reactions to Ottawa's increased TRP CN HOLD C$100.00

commitment to the West Coast Oil Pipeline. Expect comments from nearly all ALA CN BUY C$62.00

companies given the condensate + gas implications as well. Elsewhere, near- GEI CN HOLD C$32.00

term FID pace will be key for TRP + ENB. Recent news should be the focus for SOBO CN BUY C$58.00

PPL/KEY/BIP. Future projects likely dominate SOBO + ALA calls. Lastly, we are

downgrading GEI to Hold as our '26/27 EBITDA estimates are 3% below Cons.

QTD Relative Performance: Since the start of 3Q, the group is +5% with PPL leading +8% and ENB KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

lagging +2%. PPL has outperformed KEY by ~400bps while SOBO has outpaced ENB by ~400bps. TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

QTD divergences capture Stampede week news (thus PPL o/p + ENB u/p is logical), and also shed

ENB CN HOLD C$79.00 (C$77.00)

some light on positioning into 2Q results. See Ex 5-6 for more detail.

TRP CN HOLD C$100.00 (C$90.00)

TRP: We are aware of another pending project not requiring an open season (a la ASP), which might ALA CN BUY C$62.00 (C$58.00)

FID with 2Q results. Columbus and Crossroads FIDs are likely further out. We look for any comment

GEI CN HOLD C$32.00 (C$31.00)

on data center pushback. Scope of NGTL's potential expansion should also get airtime, having been

a hot topic at Stampede. SOBO CN BUY C$58.00 (C$57.00)

ENB: Abstention from the West Coast Oil Pipeline (given PPL's deal) and some delay on MLO2's