First Read Ryanair 1Q27 weaker than expected with an uncertain summer

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Ryanair 1Q27 weaker than expected with an uncertain summer

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 17.3%

Forecast dividend yield 2.5%

Forecast stock return 19.8%

Market return assumption 7.8%

Forecast excess return 12.0%

Company Description

Ryanair began operations in 1985 and in the early 1990s became a 'low-cost' airline. Ryanair

launched routes to continental Europe in 1997, and acquired Stansted-based low-fare

operator Buzz from KLM in early 2003. The Ryanair business model is based on many of the

low-cost principles pioneered by Southwest in the US. Ryanair is the largest low-cost airline in

Europe with a fleet of over 530 planes flying to 240 airports across 40 countries. In the year

ending March 2023, the company carried close to 169m passengers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Trading airlines stocks may be hazardous to your wealth. Over the long term, a diversified

portfolio of airline stocks has reliably underperformed broader market averages. Our

estimates which form the basis for our valuations and stock price targets are subject to a very

high degree of error and may be materially inaccurate. This forecast error is primarily driven by

revenue volatility a function of unpredictable business travel spending combines with

significant operating and financial leverage. Other sources of error include but are not limited

to jet fuel price volatility, labour disruptions, bankruptcy risk, and significant event risk

associated primarily with terrorist and nature actions. All of these risk factors combine to

make our estimates statistically unreliable but it's still the best we can do. We value Ryanair on

2027e EV/EBITDA.

First Read: Ryanair 20 July 2026 ab 2