Inchcape plc: Car Counting: another year of two halves

Research evidence excerpt

Inchcape plc: Car Counting: another year of two halves

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

Inchcape plc Equities

United KingdomCar Counting: another year of two halves

Industrial Services

12-month rating Buy

Ongoing volume momentum, but regions remain mixed

We believe Inchcape's position as an independent value-added distributor can support a 12m price target 990p

steady c3% mid-term profit growth and c9% cash return p.a., which we think looks

undervalued at <9x PE today. Updating our UBS 'Datamap', we believe current market

Price (17 Jul 2026) 798p

trends remain supportive for Inchcape's revenue growth through Q2'26e - but note that

regional mix and cost trends are likely to mean FY'26e profits will again be more H2- RIC: INCH.L BBG: INCH LN

weighted than usual. We estimate that volumes are c.+13% y/y in Q2’26e, with

Trading data and key metrics

strength in the Americas and Europe offset by persistent challenges in APAC (where

52-wk range 890p-641

management is taking action through operational restructuring, portfolio optimisation

and brand repositioning). We update our model to reflect these volume tends and the Market cap. £2.99b/US$4.03b

recent Silver Star acquisition: UBSe adj. EBITA rises c.+1-3% over FY’26-28e. Our PT is Shares o/s 375m (ORD)

unchanged at 990p/share, implying >20% upside. Free float 86%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 776

Inchcape vehicle volumes (UBSe) c.+13% y/y in Apr-Jun'26 Avg. daily value (m) £6.3

Looking at the latest data from our UBS vehicle volume tracker, we continue to see Common s/h equity (12/26E) £1.26b

ongoing volume momentum but with a clear divergence across the three regions. Based P/BV (12/26E) 2.1x

on market data with granularity by OEM, we estimate Inchcape’s distributed volumes Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.1x