Scandic Hotels Group AB: Remain positive following a challenging quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Scandic Hotels Group AB: Remain positive following a challenging quarter

To % ch Cons.

12/26E 4.59 4.61 1 6.63

Highlights from the earnings call 12/27E 6.77 6.58 -3 8.14

The Dalata management contract contributed SEK78m of revenue and SEK66m of 12/28E 7.43 7.43 0 8.99

EBITDA in the quarter. In Norway, the strike reduced 2Q26 revenue by cSEK 100m,

Artem Prokopetsalthough the EBITDA impact was limited due to compensation from the Norwegian

Analyst

employers’ association and operational efficiency. In Finland, the recovery is taking artem.prokopets@ubs.com

longer than expected, but management noted that 2H26 bookings are broadly in line +44-20-7901 5625

with last year, supported by events, implying flat YoY performance. For the Group in

Jarrod Castle, CFA3Q26, occupancy is expected to remain stable and room rates higher YoY with leisure

demand continuing to track stronger than corporate. Expansion of the Scandic Go jarrod.castle@ubs.com

brand will remain focused on major cities. Finally, management noted that most guests +44-20-7568 8883

continue to buy breakfast following its removal from room rates in summer 2025; YoY

Ben Shelley, ACA

comparison will become cleaner after Jul'26 as the change is fully lapped.

ben.shelley@ubs.com

Valuation: Reiterate Buy, with a new PT of SEK 103 (previously SEK 100) +44-20-7568 3957

We rate the shares Buy with a 12m PT of SEK 103 (previously SEK 100). We value Scandic

at 8.6x 2027E EV/EBITDA (IFRS16 basis, unchanged). The higher price target despite

lower EBITDA forecasts reflects lower-than-expected lease liabilities reducing our net

debt estimates. Scandic is trading at a c9% discount to its historical EV/EBITDA (blended

pre/post-IFRS16) and double-digit discount on FCF yield.