First Read EMEA Sustainability ETS review: trajectory changes + carbon removals & international credits

Research evidence excerpt

First Read EMEA Sustainability ETS review: trajectory changes + carbon removals & international credits

purchase them. It is proposed to allow operators, shipping companies and

aircraft operators to compensate their own fossil emissions with BioCCS removals

that they themselves generate.

Market Stability Reserve could become more flexible and less restrictive. From

2028, the intake rate is reduced from 24% to 12%, slowing the withdrawal of

allowances from the market and allowing more permits to remain available over

time. The proposal also introduces a graduated release mechanism when the

number of allowances in circulation falls below the lower threshold, replacing the

current cliff-edge trigger and enabling a smoother response to market tightness.

In addition, the MSR thresholds and release volumes will decline by 4% annually

from 2029, reflecting the shrinking size of the ETS cap. Overall, the changes

appear aimed at improving market predictability and reducing the risk of abrupt

adjustments in allowance supply as the ETS enters a potentially tighter phase in the

2030s.

CBAM:

For sectors covered the reduction of free allocation will be slowed and the phase-

out extended until 2038. See proposed CBAM factors below:

2034-

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2038

97.5% 95 % 91.5 % 81% 59% 48% 37.5% 27% 15% 0%

Other points:

The proposal strengthens EU ETS for aviation (e.g. to cover the EU’s share of

certain extra-European departing flights) and maritime sectors and extends it to

waste incineration.

ETS2 is excluded from the scope of this review (though proposal reiterates is will

become operational in 2028).

Potential sector implications:

European airports

Using Germany as a centre point, we calculate a radius of 5,000km includes Central and