Evolution AB Post Q2: Waiting for a Synchronous Recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Evolution AB Post Q2: Waiting for a Synchronous Recovery

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

Evolution AB Equities

SwedenPost Q2: Waiting for a Synchronous Recovery

Recreational Products & Services

12-month rating Sell

The Path to Re-Rating Runs Through Fundamentals

Stepping back, we think the key debate remains whether the €2bn buyback coincides 12m price target SKr520.00

with a stabilisation in fundamentals, allowing the company to return to being a steadier

compounder, or whether continued top-line pressure overwhelms the benefit of

Price (17 Jul 2026) SKr691.40

substantial shareholder returns. Q2 did little to settle that debate, with revenues slightly

below expectations and at least one of the two largest regions again disappointing. RIC: EVOG.ST BBG: EVO SS

While easier comps, moderating FX headwinds and encouraging early July data are

Trading data and key metrics

supportive of a better H2 setup, we continue to believe a more durable inflection

52-wk range SKr885.40-515.80

requires simultaneous stabilisation in both Europe and Asia. For now, volatility, limited

visibility and key headwinds that are only partially within EVO's control make it difficult Market cap. SKr138b/US$14.3b

to underwrite a meaningfully brighter trajectory. Shares o/s 200m (ORD)

Free float 66%

Thoughts on Q2: Still Waiting for a Synchronous Asia/Europe Recovery Avg. daily volume ('000) 711

Q2 broadly followed the pattern of recent EVO prints, with weakness in one of the Avg. daily value (m) SKr484.8

group's two largest regions offset by strength elsewhere. This quarter, Asia Common s/h equity (12/26E) €4.01b

underwhelmed expectations amid an increase in cybercrime, while Europe came in P/BV (12/26E) 3.0x

better than we forecasted growing QoQ but still declined -4% YoY.