European Insurance News & Views: Canada wildfires could lead to weather losses for Aviva in 3Q

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance News & Views: Canada wildfires could lead to weather losses for Aviva in 3Q

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

European Insurance News & Views Equities

Europe including UKCanada wildfires could lead to weather losses

for Aviva in 3Q Financial

Nasib Ahmed, FIA

Analyst

nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

Headline: Canada Wildfires could lead to weather losses for Aviva in 3Q +44-20-7568 8231

Will Hardcastle, CFA

We note that the current wildfires in Canada (see here) could lead to elevated weather Analyst

losses for Aviva’s business over 3Q26. will.hardcastle@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 9763

UBS Summary: Qian Lu

qian-za.lu@ubs.com

We like Aviva’s diversified business model and believe the investment thesis can work if +44-20-7567 4657

management provides more clarity on the underlying 7% EPS growth CAGR at 1H26

Chloe Ryanresults on 14 August. In addition, the positive pricing outlook on UK motor should be

Associate Analyst

beneficial. The valuation also screens attractive with a FY28E total capital return yield of

chloe.ryan@ubs.com

c.9%, higher than UK life insurance peers (see our preview here). We expect 2Q26 nat +44-20-7567 3505

cat losses to be within the annual budget of c.4ppts, with a UBSe discrete 2Q26 Canada

undiscounted COR of 94.5% (1Q26: 91.8%). This is aligned to the nat cat impact

disclosed by Intact at c.3ppts (see here). However, we note that Intact’s UK&I

commercial losses were at c.7ppts, above Intact’s expectations, with the read-across also

negative for Aviva’s UK&I Commercial business here. The losses here were mostly due to

commercial fires in UK&I.

Although it is too early to estimate insured losses for the current wildfires in Canada, we

estimate potential impacts for Aviva Canada based on the 2024 Jasper wildfires. The