This week in MENA

Research evidence excerpt

This week in MENA

production, infrastructure spending and a recovery in services and tourism. That said,

with EM increasingly dominated by AI-linked leadership and earnings upgrades in Asia,

MENA's appeal remains more valuation and domestic-cycle-driven, than thematic.

MENA Banks Q2 preview: UAE to show resilience

In a recent note, our economists updated Saudi and UAE GDP forecasts to refect deeper

recessions in 1H26 from long oil production cuts, offset by a sharper rebound in later

2026 and 2027, particularly for the UAE where OPEC exit likely heralds a higher

production trajectory. We now expect 2026/27 real GDP growth of +0.7%/+7.2% in

Saudi and -0.6%/+7.6% in the UAE, putting us ahead of Bloomberg consensus for

2027. Despite this slowing near-term GDP, Central bank data for loan and deposit

growth continue to show resilient trends for Q2 during April and May, especially in the

UAE with loan growth above 20% in April (latest data).

MENA Industrials 2Q26; A Toll Order or Road to Recovery?

In our first congestion note, we detailed the impact of the regional conflict on mobility

across the emirate + insightful newsflow. Our analysis utilises hourly TomTom data on

typical congestion levels and live congestion levels, and the delta between the two.

Particular focus is placed on peak commuting periods (06:00-09:00 and 16:00-19:00),

as well as the PM peak period (16:00-19:00), when the largest deviations from normal

traffic patterns have been observed. Unless otherwise stated, peak-period metrics reflect

average daily congestion levels across each month.The data indicate a significant

deterioration in mobility following the outbreak of hostilities, with the gap between

typical and live congestion levels reaching a low of -74% during peak periods in March.