EMEA Paper and Packaging: PPP Tracker: Large KL hike but tough 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Paper and Packaging: PPP Tracker: Large KL hike but tough 2Q

EMEA Paper and Packaging UBS Research

UBS vs consensus for 2Q26

Rising costs will be the theme of 2Q. Pulp & board price hikes impact earnings on a ~2m

lag with downstream prices like boxes lagging by >6m, so the full impact of rising

chemicals, freight, energy, etc, are likely to hit earnings first, which should negatively

impact 2Q for most producers. We are below 2Q cons EBIT by 4-8% and see most risk

for Mondi, where we are 6% below cons on 2Q EBITDA. We think buyside expectations

for Mondi are already weak and many see SW challenging the bottom end of its

guidance range, but we still think the consensus is too optimistic on self-help cost

savings for Stora after beats in the last two quarters. We are 8% below on 2Q EBIT for

Stora & UPM on cost risks. However, positioning is already weak and if cost pressure is

less than feared or companies like Stora or Smurfit deliver on their well publicised self-

help programs and hit consensus, there could be positive share-price reactions.

Figure 2: UBSe vs. consensus CY2Q26

UBSe vs. c ons ens us CY 2Q 26

Source: UBS estimates, Visible Alpha, Metsa is compared against company compiled consensus

Mondi: Despite ~15/16/6-7% increases in kraftliner, testliner & Kraft paper prices from

the Feb lows, the impact is likely to be felt more materially in 2H. However, delayed

opening of the Strait of Hormuz suggests costs remain elevated through 3Q. Central EU

pulpwood costs are rising, a relative disadvantage for Mondi vs Nordic peers and OCC is

rising too. We also suspect recent demand strength (supporting the price hikes) was

partly restocking driven, so we expect some demand softness in 2H. With >1mt of new