EM FI/FX Strategy: Latam: Four things to watch in the coming week

Research evidence excerpt

EM FI/FX Strategy: Latam: Four things to watch in the coming week

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

EM FI/FX Strategy Emerging Markets

Latin AmericaLatam: Four things to watch in the coming week

Roque Montero

Strategist

Brazil: Party conventions mark the next electoral milestone roque.montero@ubs.com

+1-203-719 2112

The U.S. confirmed a 25% tariff on a broad range of Brazilian goods last week, but

alongside an extensive list of exemptions. Brazilian authorities have indicated they are Manik Narain

Strategistevaluating possible responses while continuing negotiations with Washington. On the

manik.narain@ubs.com

political front, party conventions start this week and run through August 15. Senator +44-20-7568 3635

Bolsonaro is expected to secure his party's nomination on July 25, while President Lula is

also widely expected to be formally nominated. Any meaningful change to the Rafael De La Fuente

Economist

candidate slate would likely need to materialize during this window. On the macro front,

rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

the Focus survey remains worth watching; while inflation expectations have started to +1-203-719 7127

come down recently (5.1% vs. 5.3% a month ago), the recent rise in oil prices could

slow or even reverse the recent improvement in inflation expectations. In FX, we Andrea Casaverde

continue to prefer Brazil via long BRLMXN, supported by high carry and an improving

andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

external backdrop. +1-203-713-2515

Mexico: Sub-4% core inflation prints could revive easing expectations

Inflation and activity data due this week should continue to reinforce the weak growth

and gradual disinflation backdrop. While our economists expect headline inflation at

3.15% y/y, core inflation could dip below 4% for the first time since May 2025, with