MENA Industrials: 2Q26; A Toll Order or Road to Recovery?

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Industrials: 2Q26; A Toll Order or Road to Recovery?

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

MENA Industrials Equities

EMEA Emerging2Q26; A Toll Order or Road to Recovery?

Industrial

Alexander Estefanous, CFA

Dubai Congestion; June showcasing case for normalisation.. Analyst

In our first congestion note, we detailed the impact of the regional conflict on mobility alex.estefanous@ubs.com

across the emirate + insightful newsflow. Our analysis utilises hourly TomTom data on +44-20-7567 0508

typical congestion levels and live congestion levels, and the delta between the two.

Particular focus is placed on peak commuting periods (06:00-09:00 and 16:00-19:00),

as well as the PM peak period (16:00-19:00), when the largest deviations from normal

traffic patterns have been observed. Unless otherwise stated, peak-period metrics reflect

average daily congestion levels across each month.

The data indicate a significant deterioration in mobility following the outbreak of Figure 1: June: average Delta*

hostilities, with the gap between typical and live congestion levels reaching a low of - movement across Peak Hours**, Peak

74% during peak periods in March. Avg Peak and PM Peak readings stood at -16% and Hours (PM) and Off Peak Hours***

-21%, respectively, before stabilising in April and improving materially through May and eak

s P rs (PM) anJune. By June, average Peak and PM Peak readings had recovered to -4% and -7%, Hours**, Peak Hou

respectively, with both measures turning positive during the final two days of the month. ros d* Off Peak Hours**

July data suggest this improvement has continued, indicating that traffic conditions have entac

largely normalised and, in some periods, exceeded historical avgs. em

mov

Salik; forecasts unchanged, management commentary spot on? lta*e De