2Q26 Earnings Preview: Setting The Next Stage Of Resource Development

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Setting The Next Stage Of Resource Development

32 0.32 0 0.32

MMBOE, but Street expectations are for successful appraisal work to bring the Q2E 1.35 1.61 19 1.45

resource up, potentially towards 700mmboe. Beyond a resource estimate, we'll be Q3E 1.16 0.79 -32 0.81

looking for any more detail on HSV's development plan, including its timing. Q4E 1.09 0.91 -17 0.91

12/26E 3.91 3.62 -7 3.48

Bubale Discovery. The Bubale-1X Cote d'Ivoire exploration well encountered 12/27E 4.82 3.03 -37 3.38

~100 net feet of oil pay (note). MUR is preparing to drill a Bubale appraisal 12/28E 4.73 4.43 -6 3.82

immediately, expecting a 90-120 days drill time, likely pushing out results from the

Josh Silverstein appraisal until late 4Q26/early 2027. After Bubale discovered hydrocarbons across

Analyst

two formations, MUR could drill up to two appraisals per formation to better josh.silverstein@ubs.com

assess potential, as the discovery well was not drilled in the thickest part of either +1-212-713 3513

interval.

Peyton Dorne

Updating Estimates and PT. We adjust our model to reflect our new FY26/27 Analyst

WTI forecast to $79/$71 and FY26 Henry Hub forecast to $3.75, higher capex and peyton.dorne@ubs.com

lower exploration expense. As a result, our FY26/27 Adj. EBITDAX forecasts fall by +1-212-713 4359

1%/2%. We lower our PT from $44 to $41, based on a 3.75x 2027E EV/EBITDA PT William Barber

multiple. Associate Analyst

william.barber@ubs.com

+1-212-713 5553

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 3,460 3,028 2,719 3,171 3,128 3,454 3,567 3,726

EBIT (UBS) 1,042 603 301 870 719 961 962 1,009

Net earnings (UBS) 708 417 197 521 435 621 626 665

EPS (UBS, diluted) (US$) 4.52 2.76 1.37 3.62 3.03 4.43 4.59 5.10