Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc: Launch execution continues, focus shifting to F4: 2Q Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc: Launch execution continues, focus shifting to F4: 2Q Preview

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Equities

United StatesLaunch execution continues, focus shifting to F4:

2Q Preview Biotechnology

12-month rating Buy *

12m price target US$669.00Significant upside on pot'l short squeeze and F4 that is barely priced-in

We continue to view MDGL favorably as we head into 2Q26 results; investors are less

focused on quarterly numbers and more on the durability of long-term growth within Price (17 Jul 2026) US$553.48

the competitive landscape. MDGL mgmt continues to emphasize Rezdiffra's established RIC: MDGL.O BBG: MDGL US

safety profile, broad formulary access, and high physician confidence from real-world

results. Further, we believe the attention will gradually shift to F4 setting with data Trading data and key metrics

timeline within 2027 that can be narrowed down in upcoming quarters. We see the 52-wk range US$602.83-289.88

downside case framed by some investors as unfounded, but acknowledge that the stock Market cap. US$12.8b

has a high short interest based on: 1) whether FGF21s can limit the long-term Shares o/s 23.0m (COM)

commercial opportunity for Rezdiffra (vs. GLP-1 concerns previously); 2) uncertainty Free float 89%

around the magnitude of benefit in the F4 outcomes study expected in 2027; 3) Avg. daily volume ('000) 328

growing mention of IVA's upcoming Ph3 data, despite potential for safety concerns. See Avg. daily value (m) US$168.9

slides from our Bull / Bear debate here. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.56b

P/BV (12/26E) 29.3x

2Q Preview: Expecting steady patient adds and possible guidance on F4 timing Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.1x

For 2Q we model Rezdiffra at $349m, which is approx. in line with cons.