US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: Earnings Previews (KLAC, TER, LRCX, ARM, QCOM, ALGM, PI)

Research evidence excerpt

US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: Earnings Previews (KLAC, TER, LRCX, ARM, QCOM, ALGM, PI)

ur sensitivities

around semicap pricing here) to be less forceful than that of ASML and AMAT as we

view the company to be the least likely in the group to pursue pricing given its already

industry-leading margin profile. Net, we adjust our numbers slightly by raising C2028E

EPS to $8.61 but trim our PT from $255 to $240 reflecting a lower NTM P/E multiple of

~28x (down from ~30x, but still broadly in line with the stock's average premium to the

S&P) while maintaining our Neutral rating.

TER (reports 7/28 AMC; call 7/29 BMO): We see Jun Q revenue/EPS of $1,240MM/

$2.14, ahead of guidance mid-pt on TER's usual conservatism (Figure 8TER-Revenue/EPSGuidanceandSurpriseHistory)ER-Revenue&Adj.EPSGuidanceandSurpriseHistory. Recall that on

its last earnings call, management again attempted to steer down H/H trends (Street

down ~18% H/H) as TER remains wary of upticking given the lumpiness and short lead

time nature of its business; however, we continue to sense this might still be too

conservative considering that: (1) we believe AMZN Trainium test demand to have

strengthened since last quarter (UBS recently revised Trn3 unit shipment to ~1.8m/

~2.8m units in C2026/27 vs. ~1.7m/2.3m prior, and our team's supply chain checks

noting potential upside from additional foundry allocation (to be finalized in late

C2H26)), (2) NVDA networking expected to remain very strong in C2H26, (3)

TER continuing to hold the vast majority of ARM CPU test share, where units have been

upsiding, and (4) management's comments during our in-quarter NDR that

qualifications with a second hyperscaler (GOOGL, we think) remaining on track for