Channel checks: Ag Machinery: What are US farmers optimistic about?

Research evidence excerpt

Channel checks: Ag Machinery: What are US farmers optimistic about?

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

Channel checks: Ag Machinery Equities

AmericasWhat are US farmers optimistic about?

Industrial Equipment

Steven Fisher, CFA

Channel Check: Signs of farmer optimism despite uncertainty Analyst

Farmers are facing challenging conditions, with high input costs and below break-even steven.fisher@ubs.com

crop prices. With that in mind, it's easy to forget there are some more positive things +1-212-713 8634

going on. We scraped the web to gauge farmer quotes on what they are both cautious Avinatan Jaroslawicz

on and what they are positive on. We asked the question: what do farmers have to be Analyst

optimistic about? avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1405

First, the obvious challenges:

Judah Aronovitz

"There's fuel, there's drought, there's fertilizer... I've got three strikes. Am I Associate Analyst

out?": While there are signs of optimism, high input costs and low crop prices judah.aronovitz@ubs.com

continue to weigh on farm margins in the US, resulting in purchasing delays and +1-212-713-4881

potentially reducing fertilizer application. Scott Irlbeck, US farmer Lauren Sullivan

Associate Analyst

Now the sources of optimism: lauren.sullivan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8230

Many farmers expressed optimism that increased soybean trade to China will help

bolster global soybean demand. While conditions remain challenging, some

farmers have the view that major surprises are mostly in the past.

"We’re always looking to increase our free trade across the world, and

China is just a crucial part of that free trade.": Matt Wagenson, US farmer

“In all, things are looking better supply chain-wise. Things seem to have

stabilized, or at least we’ve come to a new normal of what to expect.":