US Mid-Cap Banks: ExSqueeze Me? - Week 2 Read-thrus & Top-Picks

Research evidence excerpt

US Mid-Cap Banks: ExSqueeze Me? - Week 2 Read-thrus & Top-Picks

Global Research

19 July 2026ab

US Mid-Cap Banks Equities

AmericasExSqueeze Me? - Week 2 Read-thrus & Top-Picks

Banks

Timur Braziler

Our Call Analyst

Broader sector rotation and the first major M&A deal in nearly six months helped SMIDs timur.braziler@ubs.com

squeeze higher despite mixed earnings. This tracks with our 2Q view for further +1-860-275 8004

valuation expansion despite modest EPS revisions. FLG (7/24) and BPOP (7/23) remain Sámuel Varga

Top-Picks into 2Q, while FIBK (7/23), OZK (7/21) and WAL (7/21) set-up looks Associate Analyst

more negative given the recent run. samuel.varga@ubs.com

+1-201-352 6887

The Squeeze is On Andrew Gorczyca

We found out just how negative the positioning for SMIDs was going into the quarter, as Associate Analyst

the group squeezing higher resulted in a pain trade for those that were structurally short andrew.gorczyca@ubs.com

+1-212-649 8017

SMIDs in favor of the largest banks. We think this negativity is going to be more justified

in the coming week, as QTD fundamentals for the SMIDs are lagging both GSIBs and

LCap results (Figure 3EPSScorecard-Mid-Caps). With that said, the group continues to benefit from degrossing

of the AI / hyperscaler trade, and we believe is becoming more risky to short as

M&A activity rebounds.

Read-Thrus

1) FHN shows that mid-qtr guide downs don't de-risk EPS - we see downside risk

into 2Q for both PNFP (7/22) and EWBC (7/21), as their mid-quarter updates likely

haven't flushed out all the risk. For PNFP, we believe NIM has more downside risk to

disappoint, with the next potential catalyst now a few qtrs away. For EWBC, a segment

of investors remain in denial regarding the low-3.40s NIM and sub-2% Q/Q NII update.