Q2 Preview: Growth Likely Stays Solid, but Focus on Safety Services

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Preview: Growth Likely Stays Solid, but Focus on Safety Services

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

APi Group Corporation Equities

AmericasQ2 Preview: Growth Likely Stays Solid, but Focus

on Safety Services Industrial, Diversified

12-month rating Buy

12m price target US$52.00Updated Stock Thoughts

Prior : US$56.00

We expect relatively in-line results in Q2, with strong organic growth rates continuing

primarily driven by the Specialty business. While estimates have moved higher recently Price (17 Jul 2026) US$40.18

on the completed acquisitions, there may not be as much scope to incrementally raise RIC: APG.N BBG: APG US

the 2026 guidance given increasingly tougher Specialty comps in H2 and slightly lower

recent growth rates within Safety Services. We attribute the recent stock softness to the Trading data and key metrics

lower Safety Services growth in Q1, which investors count on as the compounding part 52-wk range US$49.40-33.64

of APG, as well as some general de-rating among AI leaders. While we like the longer- Market cap. US$16.6b

term compounding algorithm here, we recognize that an identifiable upside driver to Shares o/s 412m (COM)

estimates (preferably via Safety Services re-acceleration) is likely needed to get the stock Free float 82%

going again. Avg. daily volume ('000) 887

Avg. daily value (m) US$38.3

Key Considerations into Q2 Results Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$3.91b

Growth likely stays solid. We expect organic growth to remain solid during Q2, P/BV (12/26E) 4.5x

though likely moderating from Q1 as Specialty comps become tougher. We model Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.0x

+7% organic growth, comprising of +5.5% in Safety (similar to Q1) and +12% in

Specialty (vs. +25% in Q1). Our organic growth estimate ends up at the lower-end EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)