Italian Diversified Financials: Remaining constructive on Italian AGs though with smaller valuation upside

Research evidence excerpt

Italian Diversified Financials: Remaining constructive on Italian AGs though with smaller valuation upside

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

Italian Diversified Financials Equities

ItalyRemaining constructive on Italian AGs though

with smaller valuation upside Diversified Financial

Adele Palama

Analyst

adele.palama@ubs.com

Strong AUM flows and positive market performance support fee progression +34-91-436 9023

Ahead of 2Q26, we raise by 5-8% on average our 26-29E earnings estimates for the Michael Werner

Italian diversified financials. Positive market performance and €4.8bn AUM flows in the Analyst

quarter, 7.6% of the combined AUM stock, a better level compared to 1Q26 (€3.5bn michael.werner@ubs.com

AUM flows or 5.6% of the stock) despite the uncertain geopolitical situation, supported +44-20-7568 8086

higher average AUMs. These factors lead to 5-8% higher 26-29E net fees for the group, Haley Tam

the main driver of the earnings upgrade. We also fine-tuned our 26-29E NII estimates Analyst

(up 1-6% in 26-29E) still embedding 2% 3M Euribor terminal rate only from 2028 haley.tam@ubs.com

onwards. We remain constructive on the group though the valuation upside has +44-20-7567 6176

narrowed, with the group trading now at 9% premium vs the Stoxx 600 (versus small

discount last year). We reiterate our Buy ratings on BGN (PT €70.7 p.s. +14% vs old),

BMED (PT €24.7 p.s., +12% vs old) and FBK (PT €25.7 p.s., +8% vs old).

We see still room for further re-rating for FBK

We remain constructive on FBK which, compared to BMED/BGN, has underperformed

YTD by almost 6% despite a >9% upward revision of the 12M forward EPS from csus (vs

respectively +6% and 10% upward revision of 12M forward EPS from csus for BGN and

BMED).