Swatch Group AG: Conf call feedback: Upbeat Tone on Sales, but Limited Visibility on Profitability

Research evidence excerpt

Swatch Group AG: Conf call feedback: Upbeat Tone on Sales, but Limited Visibility on Profitability

0 5.39

energy costs and improved production utilisation as drivers of a better H2, the scale of

12/27E 4.60 8.13

the expected margin recovery remains difficult to assess. This in our view suggests that 12/28E 7.17 9.96

consensus is likely to have to move down further after today's substantial miss.

Zuzanna Pusz, CFA

Providing little visibility on the future duration of the AP collaboration Analyst

zuzanna.pusz@ubs.com

Unsurprisingly, one of the key topics of the call was the Swatch–Audemars Piguet

+39 027 2100 226

collaboration. Management described the launch as a major success, highlighting both

strong demand for the product and a positive halo effect across the broader Swatch Robert Krankowski

Analystportfolio. According to management, the objective was not simply to sell watches, but

robert.krankowski@ubs.com

to reinvigorate the category and attract a new generation of consumers. The company +44-20-7568 1152

declined to disclose any quantitative contribution from the collaboration or provide

meaningful details on the commercial agreement, beyond stating that it is a

straightforward partnership under which neither party pays licensing fees. When asked

about earlier comments suggesting the collaboration could be time-limited and, as

some investors had expected, potentially end after this year, the CEO responded that

“the only thing that is not changing at Swatch is that it is always changing” providing

little visibility on the partnership's long-term future or its ultimate profit impact.

Valuation: Sell, CHF92 price target

UHR trades on 44.2x 2027e P/E for 3-year sales and EPS CAGR (26e-29e) of +4% and

+65%, respectively. We value UHR using DCF and relative multiples.