US Spirits/Beer Nielsen (incl Liquor channel): Off-premise category trends still weak despite slight world cup benefit

Research evidence excerpt

US Spirits/Beer Nielsen (incl Liquor channel): Off-premise category trends still weak despite slight world cup benefit

Tequila decelerating at +10 bps and Cordials -10bps along with share loss in

Cognac and Vodka.

Commentary (see Q2/H1 26 preview): For the US, we forecast -4% Q2

organic sales, sequentially deteriorating versus Q1 (+3%). We estimate

underlying sell-out to be -2% factoring +0.2% sales growth in the on-premise

while Nielsen off-premise shows --5.6% in Q2TD vs -2.7% in Q1. Q2 comps is

also less favourable than in Q1 on top of destocking that continues on SKYY

and Grand Marnier to weigh on group performance. We also note the comp is

less favourable than it was in Q1 embedding recovery of a part of the logistics

delays from Q1 25.

Remy (L4W sales -0.9% vs prev4W -6.8%): Remy's Cognac portfolio saw L4W

-0.9% improving vs prev 4w at -6.9% (Q2 -4.6% v Q1 -5.3%) as VSOP improved,

albeit still weak. In Liqueurs & Spirits, Cointreau has turned positive L4W +3.3% .

Cointreau RTS development continues to contribute more to sales/volume growth.

Category trends: Remy Cognac L4W value -2.5% significantly improving

prior 4W -9.4% with negative trends at Remy Martin VSOP and 1738. Within

Nielsen, there is not much evidence of the recently implemented VSOP boost

plan. In Liqueurs and Spirits, L4W tuned positive +1.3% versus prior 4W -

2.1%, with Cointreau positive L4W +3.3% versus prior 4W +0.8%.

Commentary (see Q1 27 sales preview): Our proprietary US Spirits tracker,

which integrates data from NielsenIQ (including liquor channel) and NABCA

(link), shows Remy's Cognac sell-out trends remain weak at -7% in calendar

Q2TD (fiscal Q1), broadly in line with depletions -M/-HSD%. Remy's trends are

sequentially improving as highlighted in this NIQ release, however broader