US Daily Data Recap: New tariffs, brighter surveys & energy prices up

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: New tariffs, brighter surveys & energy prices up

Firms were polled again about expected 2026 price changes in various categories, after expected lower price changes in 2026

having last provided estimates in April. Median expected price changes for 2026 compared to the last time they were

generally moved lower relative to April (link here). Energy price change expectations for asked the questions in April.

2026 were 3 to 4% in July versus 5 to 7.5% in April. Intermediate goods price change

expectations for 2026 eased to 1 to 2% in July versus 4 to 5% in April The sharpest

moderation in 2026 price change expectations was in total compensation, where the

median expected increase fell to 4 to 5% in July from 7.5 to 10% in April, suggesting

that firms have marked down expected labor cost growth.

Figure 2: Services surveys Figure 3: New York and Philly indexes both improve

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Source: Copyright © 2026, UBS, S&P GlobalTM. All rights reserved. Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,

Banks of Dallas, New York, Philadelphia Richmond, and Kansas City, Haver and UBS Haver, UBS

Retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices rising again

The AAA US average regular unleaded gasoline price edged up $0.23 to $4.02 per The average retail gas price in

gallon on Monday, July 20 from a recent trough at $3.79 on Monday, July 6. Gas prices February prior to the Middle East

are now back above $4 for the first time since June 17, but remain below the recent conflict was $2.93.

peak at $4.56 per gallon on Wednesday, May 20. After falling to ~$71 per barrel on July

1, a low since the end of February, the Brent crude price sits at $91 per barrel. The price