Morning Expresso – Australasia

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia

Australian Resources - El Nino to support Australian bulk miners; & Spot Scenario

El Niño; & Spot Scenario Mining

Weather forecasters are projecting a strong, or "Super" El Niño weather pattern through the rest of

2026 and into 2027. We assess the implications of the evolving El Niño climate setup for Australian bulk

commodities, where improving operating conditions may provide a modest but supportive backdrop

for coal and iron ore producers. Separately, we update UBS's spot scenario, which gauges fair value

momentum should spot prices maintain. On our spot scenario, MIN and FMG have strongest spot fair

value momentum in our diversified miners coverage universe.

El Niño may emerge as operational tailwind for Australian bulk miners

A strengthening El Niño, coupled with the risk of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is emerging as a

potential operational tailwind for Australian bulk miners. While the combination historically drives

hotter and drier conditions across eastern Australia, Queensland and NSW coal producers are entering

the cycle with strong water storage levels and relatively favourable operating conditions. This is

significant because El Niño events are often associated with below-average rainfall across key mining

regions, increasing the risk of water shortages that can constrain coal washing, dust suppression, rail

operations and broader site activities. While rain fall activity is now below seasonal norms, healthy

water storages in Qld and NSW may provide an important buffer, allowing producers such as WHC

BHP and CRN to benefit from a drier operating environment without facing the operational challenges

that can accompany prolonged dry conditions. At the same time, lower rainfall reduces the likelihood