First Read Kiatnakin Phatra Bank: Q226A: profit beat from wealth fee, higher LLR from write off

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Kiatnakin Phatra Bank: Q226A: profit beat from wealth fee, higher LLR from write off

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -39.7%

Forecast dividend yield 5.0%

Forecast stock return -34.7%

Market return assumption 7.2%

Forecast excess return -41.9%

Company Description

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank is a Thailand-based commercial bank. The bank offers savings and

current accounts, loans, and other banking services, as well as investments and foreign

exchange services. The bank has 65 branches, 4,268 employees, and a total market

capitalisation of Bt43,819m. Founded in 1971 by Mr Kiat Wattanavekin and listed in 1988,

major shareholders are Thai NVDR Company Limited and Eastern Sugar Company Limited.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

KKP - We base our price target on a P/BV versus ROE methodology.

We believe company-specific upside risks include: 1) an ease of EV car price cuts would

reduce loss on car repossession pressure 2) lower interest rate cycle would ease COF pressure

and recover capital market fee/AMC business. Company-specific downside risks include: 1) a

further penetration of EV cars in the Thai market would accelerate used car price falling and

loss on car repossession 2) fast growth in auto title loan book could lead to an NPL surprise as

running this business on bank platform may not be able to collect debt as efficient as non

banks and auto title loan has high LTV structure.

We believe industry downside/upside risks include: 1) new regulations for fintech entrants

from BoT (eg, virtual banking licence and P2P) and SEC licensing (eg, for crowd funding)

could pose a threat to conventional banks’ customer, loan and deposit market shares; 2) BoT

lagging the decentralised finance trend and delay in adopting new regulations in time for