TMB Thanachart Bank: Resilient earnings underpin DPS and PT upgrade

Research evidence excerpt

TMB Thanachart Bank: Resilient earnings underpin DPS and PT upgrade

m our 2027E

From To % ch Cons.

assumptions but raise our 2026-28E dividend payout ratio assumption to 80% from 12/26E 0.23 0.24 7 0.22

60%. We also increase our 2026E interim DPS estimate to Bt0.1, from Bt0.066 in 2025. 12/27E 0.23 0.23 2 0.21

12/28E 0.21 0.21 1 0.21

2026E earnings likely sustainable yoy

Peach PatharavanakulWe now forecast 2026E profit to increase 2% yoy (previously -4% yoy), reflecting

Analyst

stronger-than-expected non-NII in H126. While TTB guides slower wealth fee income peach.patharavanakul@ubs.com

growth in H226, as a large portion of term-deposit customers shifted funds into +662-613 5717

investment products amid the low-interest-rate environment in H126, we expect

quarterly profit of c.Bt5.3-5.4bn in H226, compared with Bt5.2-5.5bn in H126,

supported by an increase in LLR/NPL to 157%, stabilized NIM, and the absence of IT-

related write-offs.

Valuation: methodology changed from P/B to PE, PT raised to Bt3.10

As discussed in our 25 June report, the sustainability of elevated dividends, along with

political stability, could support capital inflows into the Thai banking sector relative to

the SET Index. As such, investors are increasingly adopting a valuation framework that

better reflects dividend expectations. We raise our PT to Bt3.10 from Bt2.3, based on

13.3x 12M fwd PE, anchored to a sustainable 80% dividend payout ratio, versus the

prior 1x 12M fwd P/BV based on sustainable ROE of 8.3%. Following the 23% share

price increase over the past month, including a 10% gain yesterday, we see limited

valuation upside even after raising our earnings estimates, although the dividend yield

remains attractive. We therefore maintain our Neutral rating.