US Economics Weekly: Tariff news, then the FOMC

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US Economics Weekly: Tariff news, then the FOMC

Global Research

17 July 2026ab

US Economics Weekly Economics

AmericasTariff news, then the FOMC

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

Economic Comment: July FOMC meeting preview jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

We expect the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at the July meeting, but

uncertainty is high. Chairman Greenspan and Chair Powell both described the central Alan Detmeister

Economistproblem of monetary policymakers as making decisions under uncertainty. Under

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

Chairman Warsh, forecasters are getting a taste. Inside we describe our forecast for the +1-212-713 1222

FOMC decision in July, made under substantial uncertainty. Although we expect the

FOMC leaves policy unchanged, willing to wait and see where the inflation data takes Abigail Watt

them, the uncertainty and the nature of the uncertainty undermines the ability to

abigail.watt@ubs.com

provide a probability outcome with any measurable confidence. Also, if there is little to +1-212-882 6929

say in the press conference, will Chairman Warsh still have one? The Economic

Comment begins on page 3. Amanda Wilcox

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

Tariff authority expiring with replacement tariffs still to come +1-212-713 3899

The authority for the universal 10% tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act

Jalen Nichols

of 1974 expires next week, on July 24. The USTR already announced a new 25% tariff Economist

on certain imports from Brazil and we'd expect more announcements to come. Plus, jalen.nichols@ubs.com

refunds are flowing out now too. We discuss trade policy on page 9. +1-212-882 6905

The Week Ahead: tariffs and federal spending

In addition to trade policy news next week, time is running out for fiscal deadlines on

September 30.