Canada Economic Perspectives: June CPI implies May was likely the peak

Research evidence excerpt

Canada Economic Perspectives: June CPI implies May was likely the peak

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

Canada Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasJune CPI implies May was likely the peak

Abigail Watt

Economist

The headline CPI moderated to 2.8% year over year in June, from 3.2% in May, and the abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

core CPI edged up 0.2pp to 1.8% on an annual basis in June. The Bank of Canada’s

(BoC) preferred inflation measures both dipped below 2.0% with the weighted-median Jonathan Pingle

declining 0.2pp to 1.9% and the trimmed mean moderating 0.2pp to 1.8%. For the Economist

BoC, this is another inflation report where there is little sign of spillovers from energy jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

price inflation and core inflation despite edging higher is still sitting below 2%. With

this, we continue to expect no change in policy from the BoC this year. Amanda Wilcox

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

Taking on board the June data, we continue to expect that headline CPI potentially +1-212-713 3899

peaked in the May data at 3.2%, and we expect to see a continued moderation into the

Jalen Nicholsend of the year with the annual average for headline CPI at 2.6% this year. We expect

that core CPI could continue to slowly grind higher with signs of a modest improvement jalen.nichols@ubs.com

in demand — but we see this sitting around 2% on annual average basis in 2026. +1-212-882 6905

Headline CPI: -0.4% m/m; 2.8% y/y

Headline inflation declined -0.4% over the month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis

with the annual rate of inflation moving down 0.4pp to 2.8%. Energy prices were down

6.8% over the month after relief in energy prices through June. We expect May likely

marked the peak in headline CPI for the year but this will depend on developments in