Tubes into 2Q: TEN over VK

Research evidence excerpt

Tubes into 2Q: TEN over VK

EUROPE | Oil Services & Equipment EquityJulyResearch22, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Tubes into 2Q: TEN over VK

We expect both TEN & VK to meet 2Q expectations, with both guided lower TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

q/q, but we prefer TEN on potential 3Q guide beat & sit +3/5% vs. cons. in TEN IM BUY €32.00

3Q/4Q. TEN could also positively surprise on s/h returns, in our view, and TS BUY $76.00

we expect buyback to be announced at results, while VK recently confirmed VK FP BUY €27.00

"close to €650m" s/h returns, leaving little room for surprise. US rig count,

OCTG pricing & import trends remain supportive. TEN +7% to €32/sh, VK

-4% to €27/sh. KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

Indicators remain supportive; Seamless OCTG price keeps climbing on higher rig count & TEN IM BUY €32.00 (€30.00)

lower imports. US OCTG Seamless pricing is up +12% ytd to June (& Welded pricing +15%

TS BUY $76.00 ($71.00)

ytd) supported by an increasing US rig count; +8% ytd while OCTG imports continue at lower

levels y/y. Whilst latest US import data for May shows an overall increase of +55% m/m, that VK FP BUY €27.00 (€28.00)

increase was almost entirely driven by Welded imports; +82% m/m, while Seamless imports

increased a modest +6% m/m and remain well below the average of the last 12 months.

US Seamless & Welded OCTG

Vallourec 2Q26 results 30 July; 2Q26 guided at $175-205m. At 1Q results, VK guided 2Q Pricing vs US Rigs

$4,500 ($/mt) Monthly avg US Rig count Seamless ($/mt) Welded ($/mt)Rigs1,600EBITDA in the range of $175-205m, with Tubes volumes and EBITDA per tonne "to decrease $4,000 1,400

1,200

$3,000 1,000sequentially" which had assumed a gradual normalisation of vessel activity through the Strait $3,500 $2,500

$2,000

600 $1,500