Air Show Takes: ATI In A Seller’s Market, 15-20% Nickel Growth By 2028

Research evidence excerpt

Air Show Takes: ATI In A Seller’s Market, 15-20% Nickel Growth By 2028

USA | Aerospace & Defense Electronics EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

Air Show Takes: ATI In A Seller's Market, 15-20%

Nickel Growth By 2028

We met with ATI's Rob Foster (CFO) and Adam Pechart (IR) at FAS2026.

Key takes: 1) Demand strong across A&D and Specialty Energy, w/ material

shortages foreseen into the early 2030s; 2) sole-source on 5/7 engine metals

underpins a seller's market; 3) 15-20% nickel capacity growth on partly

customer funded capex; and 4) transformation and productivity unlocks still

early to mid-innings.

Demand Strong Across A&D and Specialty Energy. A&D remains the strongest end market,

followed by Specialty Energy, which is driven by IGT and nuclear (larger component). ATI allocates

zirconium and hafnium btw defense (submarines) and nuclear as both markets stay strong. Mgmt

is de-prioritizing medical, semis, and electronics given more fungible alloys and noted hafnium

chloride sold into semis may be better directed to defense. On customer econs, ATI is capacity-

constrained, so small orders that require a line changeover must clear an economic hurdle. To

justify downtime, customers can commit to a 5- to 7-year buy, accept a higher price, or fund a 2-yr

transition buy, w/ most opting for the multiyear option.

Sole Source Position Underpins a Seller's Market. ATI holds strong positions across major

programs and materials, incl. nickel superalloys, premium titanium, zirconium, and hafnium. On 5

of 7 engine metals, they are the sole source, on the 6th they are dual-source, the 7th is an RTX P&W.

Mgmt sees material shortages into the early 2030s on heightened MRO as next-gen engines enter

heavy SVs and upgrade packages. Competitors are missing supply while BA executes and Airbus