The Daily Canuck 21.07.2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Canuck 21.07.2026

Canada | Financials EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

Figure 1 - Canada - CPI Y/Y % ChangeThe Daily Canuck 21.07.2026

5%

The only real headline from yesterday was the announced additional tariffs by 4%

the U.S. on some Canadian exports. The list excludes key items such as oil 3%2%

1%and gas but do include goods included in the USMCA agreement, which is a

Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26new stretch for Trump's tariffs. While there was not an immediate response by . 0%

Canada, this is an incremental negative on the economic outlook. Source: Statistics Canada, Jefferies

What you need to know:

Yesterday, Statistics Canada reported that Canadian inflation eased to 2.8% y/y in June from•

3.2% in May. The slowdown was driven primarily by gasoline prices, which remained elevated

but grew at a slower pace and fell 10.2% m/m. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at

2.2%. Overall CPI declined 0.4% m/m, the largest monthly drop since December 2024. Travel-

related costs rose sharply, with accommodation, airfare, travel tours, and car rentals boosted

by World Cup-related demand. Grocery inflation slowed to 3.9% but continued to outpace

headline inflation. Ontario posted the lowest inflation rate at 2.0%.

On the macro front, May Retail Sales data is coming out on Thursday, while RMPI and IPPI•

data for June will come out on Friday.

Headlines

Trump to impose new tariffs on Canadian exports over auto, dairy and alcohol disputes The Globe

& Mail reported yesterday that U.S. President Donald Trump is escalating his trade war against

Canada, imposing 50-per-cent tariffs on a range of goods to hit back at Ottawa for retaliating against

his previous tariffs. In a surprise move on Monday, Mr. Trump signed three proclamations invoking