EBITDA Beats, but Working Capital Weighs on FCF Again

Research evidence excerpt

EBITDA Beats, but Working Capital Weighs on FCF Again

USA | Metals & Mining

Steel Dynamics EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEEBITDA Beats, but Working Capital Weighs on

RATING BUYFCF Again

PRICE $230.49^

STLD's reported 2Q EBITDA of $921m compares to our estimate of $915m and

consensus of just $875m, while Diluted EPS of $3.69 compares to the revised PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $310.00 | +34%

guidance range of $3.51-3.55 provided last month. FCF and share repurchases 52W HIGH-LOW $288.74 - $119.89

were impacted by a second consecutive working capital build, but both should FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 92.5% | 300.64

meaningfully improve in 2H as STLD remains focused on the ramp-up of the MARKET CAP $33.5B

aluminum operations. Reiterate Buy on STLD. TICKER STLD ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Beats on EBITDA, Misses on FCF: STLD's reported 2Q EBITDA of $921m compares to our estimate

of $915m and consensus of $875m, while Diluted EPS of $3.69 compares to the revised guidance

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

range of $3.51-3.55 provided last month. Segmental earnings trajectories were largely in-line with

2026 2027 2026 2027

guidance, outside of the sequential decrease in average sales price in the Steel Fabrication segment

and ramp-up volumes in aluminum. Due to the continued impact of tariffs on import penetration EPS -2% NM +4% -3%

and STLD's volume growth from Sinton, the company achieved record quarterly shipment volumes EBITDA -2% <-1% +4% -1%

during 2Q for the second consecutive quarter. FCF of $304m rose significantly from near breakeven

levels at 1Q, but still missed expectations as a result of another working capital build (+$700m build 2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3 Q4 FY

YTD). EBITDA 699.9 920.5 1,220.1 1,192.5 4,033.0

PREV 4,118.5