Italian Wealth: Pick Your Horse

Research evidence excerpt

Italian Wealth: Pick Your Horse

Italy | Banks EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Italian Wealth: Pick Your Horse

We expect supportive markets in 2Q to lift fees and drive upside from TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

performance fees. We raise EPS and PTs across the sector. Banca Generali FBK IM BUY €26.90

(Buy) offers the clearest recovery story with improving flows and 2H26 BMED IM HOLD €22.10

catalysts; Fineco (Buy) benefits from multiple growth initiatives; on both BGN IM BUY €71.20

companies, we are meaningfully ahead of consensus forecasts. Banca

Mediolanum (Hold) remains solid but offers less earnings upside versus peers.

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

We expect a good quarter from Italian wealth managers, with supportive markets in 2Q that will TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

sustain commission income. We expect the biggest surprises will come from performance fees,

FBK IM BUY €26.90 (€26.10)

as net inflows and, in the FBK case, TFA stocks, have already been disclosed to the market. As

we prepare for the prints which will be on 29th July FBK and BGN and 30th July for BMED, we BMED IM HOLD €22.10 (€21.50)

increase our EPS by low single digits due to the mark-to-market of AuM based on 2Q26 MSCI World BGN IM BUY €71.20 (€70.00)

performance (+14%), driving an increase in our price targets (+2%-3%).

Banca Generali (Buy). After staying cautious due to weaker operating momentum versus peers,

we now see a clear inflection point, with latest datapoints on net flows signaling a business

recovery. The Alleanza partnership and Intermonte acquisition should support flows, margins

and commission income from 2H26, while improving recruitment and visibility. We see upside to

consensus EPS of low single digits in 2026 and 2027 and high single digits in 2028. We view the