Back to basics

Research evidence excerpt

Back to basics

Asia Pacific InsightM

Executive summary

#1: What is the outlook for Ig?

Key takeaway: For CSL, the recent moderation in Ig revenue growth has reflected market

share loss. We remain positive on the outlook for Ig over the medium to longer-term.

• The volume of Ig distributed in the US has increased strongly over time (+8.8% p.a.

between 2010 and 2015), with increased use on a per capita basis.

• On a global basis, industry revenue increased by ~7.5% in 2025, including

headwinds from the US Medicare Part D redesign.

• For CSL, revenue growth was below peers in 2025, implying declining market

share.

• Looking ahead, we see opportunities for increased penetration in primary and

secondary immunodeficiencies (PID/SID), but with scope for lower growth in

chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) due to FcRn receptor

agonists and the potential approval of complement inhibitors.

• In aggregate, we assume industry growth of ~5.5% p.a. to 2030 (CAGR), which

informs our forecasts for CSL.

#2: A closer look at albumin

Key takeaway: Volume growth in China has supported strong growth in global albumin

volumes from 2010. However, recent regulatory focus in China presents near-term

headwinds to volume growth.

• Global albumin volumes increased by ~8% over 2010-21, underpinned by strong

growth in China (growth of ~15% p.a., with the share of consumption rising from

~25% in 2010 to ~47% in 2021).

• More recently, regulatory changes have focused on the restriction of the utilisation

of albumin in China.

• While we see the prevalence of liver disease and cirrhosis complications in China as

supportive of albumin use over the medium to longer-term, we see the regulatory

framework as a constraint to volume growth in the near-term.