Air Show Takes: Backlog and Growth on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Air Show Takes: Backlog and Growth on Track

EBITDA

of $118MM at a 23.6% margin is est to exceed 25% margins in '28E at $232MM of EBITDA w/

100-150bps of annual expansion.

Fury Strategically Important, but Financially Modest NT. The USAF downselected Anduril and

General Atomics for Increment 1 in June to produce 150+ combat capable CCAs by 2030, at

a targeted ASP of <$30MM, supported by $996.5MM of requested FY27 funding. We est AADX

likely provides control surfaces, wing/fuselage structures, and other components for Anduril's

Fury. While exact sourcing content and sourcing position remains undisclosed, we estimate ~

$0.5-1.5MM of AADX opportunity per aircraft, implying a ~$150MM+ opportunity and ~$8-45MM at

peak annual production. The key debate centers on whether early participation converts into durable

incumbency vs Anduril's demonstrated willingness to vertically integrate at Arsenal-1, alongside

uncertainty on allocation vs. General Atomics and long-term program scale. Net, we see Fury less

as a near-term earnings driver and more as a validation asset that could re-rate Applied's growth

profile if content, volumes, or sole-source positions are confirmed.

Strong Traction Across SpaceX and Primes. We estimate that AADX provides protective

composite assemblies, the payload development subsystem, and actuator landing legs for the

SpaceX Falcon 9 Launch Vehicle, representing an est 200%+ increase in content per launch through

program ramp since mid last decade. Despite uncertainty with the transition to Starship, mgmt has

indicated good traction with SpaceX and other primes incl. with TXT's MV-75 FLRAA, RTX's LTAMDS

Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst

radar, LMT's GPS Block III, and other classified programs. +1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com